Haiti - Climate : Annual hurricane forecast for 2011 season

Annual forecasts for the hurricane season 2011 has just been published by the Colorado State University. In its latest report, researchers of the University report that information obtained through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season.

"We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), whose 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5)".

The report states that the "probability for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane tracking into the caribbean (10-20°n, 60-88°w) is the 61%, compared to an average of 42% in the last century".

The probability to have: A tropical storm is 95% compared to 82% (1), a hurricane of category 1-2 77% compared to 57% (1), a hurricane of category 3-4-5 91% compared to 42% (1). All types of hurricane confused the probability is 91%, compared to 75% (1).

(1) over the past 100 years

Source : L/ HaitiLibre